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　　云南早在2016年國內電解鋁產能向傳統火電成本低廉產區的轉移達到頂峰之后，就已經憑借水電優勢成為了電解鋁新增產能“必爭之地”，各大鋁企紛紛攜指標入滇，重構電解鋁行業格局。然而，今年以來云南屢次傳出限電減產的消息，5月鋁廠用電負荷連續下壓，7月中旬突爆煤炭供應不足，周邊高熱亦導致豐水期水電吃緊，鋁廠此前部分復產產能重新削減，另有產能復產及新投計劃亦隨之擱置。

　　就當(dang)前云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)來看，今年6月(yue)底(di)，烏東德(de)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)完畢，白鶴(he)灘水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站亦(yi)(yi)開(kai)始(shi)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)，均給(gei)予市(shi)場(chang)(chang)較好的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應預(yu)期(qi)(qi)，然(ran)而云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)豐(feng)水(shui)(shui)期(qi)(qi)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全開(kai)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下再次出現電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力吃緊情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，引(yin)發(fa)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)對(dui)云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)強(qiang)烈關注(zhu)。據(ju)此，我們綜合云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)全省的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需，在白鶴(he)灘按計劃投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)假設(she)下，認為今年三、四季(ji)度云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需仍偏(pian)緊，即使在豐(feng)水(shui)(shui)期(qi)(qi)持(chi)續至11月(yue)底(di)的(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下，三季(ji)度供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)仍短(duan)缺19億千瓦時，四季(ji)度小幅盈余約5億千瓦時，但整體依舊呈(cheng)偏(pian)緊態勢。由此來看，近(jin)期(qi)(qi)云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)汛期(qi)(qi)限電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)或將維持(chi)，對(dui)于云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)當(dang)地電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)以及減產(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)復產(chan)(chan)均會有(you)的(de)(de)(de)牽制。此外，受當(dang)前電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠存煤(mei)下降以及煤(mei)炭(tan)價(jia)格高位影(ying)響(xiang)，進(jin)入(ru)四季(ji)度枯水(shui)(shui)期(qi)(qi)后(hou)云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應或無(wu)法跟上用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求，且不排(pai)除豐(feng)、枯水(shui)(shui)期(qi)(qi)切(qie)換時點前移的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)，云(yun)(yun)(yun)南(nan)(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應短(duan)缺情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)亦(yi)(yi)有(you)概率再次出現。因(yin)此，全年來看，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應短(duan)缺現象持(chi)續，對(dui)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁企(qi)業而言，則進(jin)一步延(yan)緩了供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)的(de)(de)(de)釋放(fang)節奏，供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)的(de)(de)(de)邊際增量減弱。

　　此(ci)外，從中(zhong)長期(qi)的(de)(de)時(shi)間維度來看，云南全省(sheng)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)較(jiao)大。考慮電(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)450萬噸(dun)(dun)、工業硅產(chan)(chan)(chan)能新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)100萬噸(dun)(dun)、多晶硅產(chan)(chan)(chan)能新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)14萬噸(dun)(dun)等，粗略計算三者將增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求822億千(qian)瓦時(shi)/年。而若(ruo)不考慮火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏等的(de)(de)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)，按(an)照云南省(sheng)目(mu)前規劃的(de)(de)重點(dian)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)項目(mu)，烏東德(de)、白鶴灘以及托巴僅能提(ti)供(gong)約162億千(qian)瓦時(shi)/年的(de)(de)省(sheng)內(nei)供(gong)應增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)，遠遠不及云南省(sheng)內(nei)的(de)(de)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)。因此(ci)，除非(fei)云南進一步加(jia)大對清(qing)潔能源的(de)(de)投(tou)入與發展(zhan)，否則(ze)按(an)照目(mu)前的(de)(de)規劃情況，省(sheng)內(nei)中(zhong)長期(qi)限電(dian)(dian)(dian)或(huo)變為常(chang)態，將進一步限制高耗能企業如電(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)廠等的(de)(de)正常(chang)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)及新投(tou)。

　　云(yun)南(nan)豐水期再次限電(dian)，這(zhe)與今(jin)(jin)年3月內蒙古能耗雙(shuang)控下鋁(lv)廠限電(dian)減產(chan)背后的(de)原因幾乎是(shi)同根同源。就(jiu)當下中國電(dian)解鋁(lv)行(xing)業(ye)格局(ju)而(er)(er)言(yan)，在(zai)2017年國家工信部定下產(chan)能天花板(ban)之(zhi)后，去年9月至今(jin)(jin)“碳達(da)峰(feng)”、“碳中和”的(de)政策(ce)遠景(jing)目標(biao)又(you)使得電(dian)解鋁(lv)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)產(chan)能發展路徑進一(yi)步明朗(lang)化(hua)。而(er)(er)云(yun)南(nan)及(ji)內蒙古鋁(lv)廠的(de)限電(dian)減產(chan)，都(dou)是(shi)這(zhe)一(yi)場行(xing)業(ye)變局(ju)中的(de)縮影，“理(li)想”正在(zai)不斷地(di)“照(zhao)進現實”，“碳達(da)峰(feng)”政策(ce)對電(dian)解鋁(lv)產(chan)能的(de)顯性(xing)約束已(yi)經在(zai)成為一(yi)種(zhong)常態(tai)。